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Market Report November 2025

Equity Markets

U.S. equities ended November largely flat, halting a six-month rally and the longest uninterrupted winning streak in four years. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% while the Nasdaq fell 1.5% as elevated valuations in technology and AI-linked sectors tempered optimism despite strong earnings. Global momentum softened, with the ACWI index slipping and breaking a seven-month run.

European equities (ex-UK) gained 1.1% on supportive 2026 earnings expectations, while UK equities were volatile ahead of the budget: after a near 4% rise in October, the FTSE 100 fell 404 points before recovering to close flat at 9720. The UK Autumn Budget set out a fiscally tightening programme, freezing income-tax and National Insurance thresholds until 2030–31, lifting dividend tax rates from 2026 and increasing taxes on savings and property income from 2027. Pension reforms will cap salary-sacrifice NI advantages from 2029, Cash ISA allowances for under-65s will fall to £12,000 from 2027, and a new levy will apply to homes above £2 million, while the two-child benefit cap will be removed in 2026.

 

Commodities

Gold remained firm, finishing November about 5% higher near $4,220/oz after an early pullback driven by profit-taking, a firmer dollar and hawkish policy signals. Safe-haven demand, central-bank buying and persistent inflation concerns continued to support prices.  

Crude oil weakened, with Brent averaging $63–64/bbl as rising inventories and softer demand indicators kept prices under pressure. Volatility increased, with Brent touching the low $62 range and WTI in the high $50s, reinforcing expectations that surplus conditions may extend into early 2026 barring stronger consumption or coordinated output cuts. OPEC raised output by 137,000 bpd, partially reversing earlier voluntary cuts, and signalled caution by pausing further hikes in early 2026. The group also introduced a new framework to assess sustainable production capacity to guide future baselines, reflecting a preference for gradual normalisation and flexibility against uncertain demand.

 

Monetary Policy

The United States experienced a 43-day federal government shutdown from 1 October to 12 November 2025, suspending key economic data releases as statistical agencies were unable to operate. No official October figures were published, and November data have been delayed, leaving markets without essential inflation, employment and consumer indicators.

The Bank of England held rates at 4% on 6 November despite a softer CPI print of 3.8% versus a 4% forecast.  

The European Central Bank did not meet in November, keeping its deposit, refinancing and marginal lending rates unchanged at 2.00%, 2.15% and 2.40% respectively. 

 

Inflation Trends (October)

UK CPI fell 0.2% to 3.6%, slightly below expectations, while core CPI eased from 3.5% to 3.4%.  

Eurozone CPI held at 2.2% and core CPI ticked up from 2.3% to 2.4%, supporting arguments for a continued pause in the ECB’s rate-cutting cycle. 

 

If you are interested in discussing further, please contact the desk on 0207 466 5665.

 

Important Disclaimer

This article is intended for general information purposes only and reflects the market environment at the time of writing. It does not constitute investment advice, a personal recommendation, or an offer to engage in any trading activity. The content does not take into account individual objectives or circumstances and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Content may have been created by persons who have, have previously had, or may in future have personal interests in securities or other financial products referred to therein. All conflicts, and potential conflicts, relating to our business are managed in accordance with our conflicts of interest policy. For more information, please refer to our Summary of Conflicts of Interest Policy

For more information and important risk disclosures, please see our Trading Notes and Privacy Policy. AMT Futures Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

Written By

Sebastian Blanco

Desk Broker

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